Global dealmakers still confident in cross-border M&A in 2025 despite geopolitical disruption

Despite geopolitical headwinds, global confidence in cross-border M&A remains strong, according to ‘Dealonomics’, our new report in collaboration with Bayes Business School.

The research reveals nearly three-quarters (74%) of dealmakers feel positive about the M&A outlook for the year ahead, with sentiment even higher when it comes to key markets – 92% for the UK and 98% for the US – despite the tariffs introduced by Trump in early April. 

The survey found the UK is the second most attractive market for cross-border deals, with 57% of respondents saying they are ‘very positive’ about UK M&A over the next 12 months – more than double the average across other markets. This is reflected in deal activity, with the UK placed second for both global deal volume and average deal value, topped only by the US.

Figure 1: Top three markets for M&A by deal volume, average deal value and acquirer performance post-deal for the period 2018-2024 inclusive (note: international and domestic deals both included).

Value creation threatened without the right tools and counsel 

However, the report also reveals critical blind spots that could threaten long-term value creation. Post-deal integration was identified by 63% of dealmakers as the most frequently overlooked factor in cross-border M&A. Despite recent advancements in AI and automation – and its role elsewhere in the deal-making process – just 13% of respondents believe AI alone will enhance integration processes, underscoring the continued need for expert human counsel alongside new technology. 

That said, 60% of dealmakers do believe AI and automation will improve due diligence. This rises to 68% among the most senior dealmakers surveyed, but falls to 41% among respondents at the Vice President level, suggesting that more senior decision-makers are seeing more potential in the use of AI to augment human expertise in this arena.

Dealmakers expect tech to lead the way in 2025-30 

The research also highlights dealmakers’ expectations for industry activity over the next five years. The technology, media and communications (TMC) sector leads the way, with 75% of respondents predicting it will see the most deal activity through to 2030. This is followed by energy & infrastructure (70%) and life sciences & healthcare (58%). These rankings are driven by respondents associated with deals averaging over US$250 million, who are more optimistic than those involved in deals valued between US$100–250 million: TMC (79% vs 67%), energy & infrastructure (77% vs 59%), and life sciences & healthcare (65% vs 48%). 

There is a substantial drop-off outside the top three, with financial institutions & insurance and private wealth the next highest at just 28% and 11% respectively. This clustering around TMC, energy & infrastructure, and life sciences & healthcare is decisive, clearly marking them as the key sectors to watch. 

That said, although over the past six years the TMC sector has seen more cross-border deals than any other (with 232 deals valued at over US$100 million) average deal values were among the lowest, at US$1.019 billion. 

Figure 2: Industry sectors and the proportion of global dealmakers that expect the most deal activity in the next five years to occur in each.

Emma Danks, Partner, Head of UK Corporate group, commented: “Confidence in cross-border M&A is strong, particularly in the UK and US, as our research shows. But optimism alone isn’t enough. Without a clear strategy, deals can quickly be put at risk. The smartest acquirers plan for integration from day one, align assumptions early, and understand local nuances. 

“The market’s resilience in response to the latest US tariffs highlights how dealmakers are adapting – even as geopolitical shifts and supply chain disruption reshape the playing field. Turning confidence into returns requires discipline, alignment, and deal-specific integration planning. Those who get it right will lead the next wave of global M&A.” 

Professor Scott Moeller, Professor in the Practice of Finance and Director of the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School, added: “It’s interesting to see that global dealmakers remain positive about the M&A outlook for 2025, even given recent trade disruptions, but it should perhaps come as no surprise. M&A remains a key growth lever on a national level as much as a corporate one. 

“A recent slowdown in deals over the past few years has only served to build up dry powder amongst some potential acquirers. When the dam breaks and the deal flow begins to pick up again, we can expect to see a significant acceleration as companies look to put these overflowing war chests to good use.”