Dealonomics

Cross-border M&A is growing increasingly complex. Against a backdrop of heightened regulatory scrutiny, shifting tariff regimes, and widening valuation gaps, dealmakers are under pressure to get the fundamentals right – from strategic alignment to post-deal integration.

To help clients navigate this dealmaking environment, we’ve just launched Dealonomics. This new report, developed in collaboration with Bayes Business School’s M&A Research Centre, is based on analysis of almost 900 cross-border transactions and a global survey of 850 dealmakers.

It provides a comprehensive view of the current M&A landscape and explores the defining characteristics of successful deals, sector and market performance, and the risks that frequently get overlooked.

The report looks at:

• the structural and strategic factors that shape deal outcomes 
• post-deal risks – from integration to talent retention – that are often underestimated 
• how evolving regulation is impacting deal activity across jurisdictions 
• the sectors and regions that are driving value – and the ones that are falling behind. 

Topline findings from the Dealonomics report

• Confidence remains high despite geopolitical disruption: 74% of dealmakers are positive about the M&A outlook for the next 12 months. Critically this optimism appears to have survived at least the immediate impact of President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
• Tech continues to lead the way: The sector has seen the highest deal volume in the last six years — with 232 deals — and is expected to dominate M&A growth through to 2030. Energy & infrastructure follows with 80 deals and is set to be the second busiest sector by 2030, with life sciences & healthcare recording 47 deals and forecast to take third place.
• But optimism doesn’t guarantee success: 79% of dealmakers say growth potential is routinely overestimated in valuations — while integration challenges are the most underestimated risk in cross-border deals.
• Other critical risks are still being missed: Talent retention and customer continuity are regularly overlooked, despite their impact on post-deal value creation.
• When done right, M&A is a growth lever: 65% of dealmakers say cross-border M&A leads to more GDP growth, while 78% believe it leads to more productive economies.

If you’d like to discuss what our Dealonomics research could mean for you, please get in touch.